Unveiling individual and collective temporal patterns in the tanker shipping network

Teo, Kevin, Arnold, Naomi, Hone, Andrew, Coulon, Michael, Ireland, Martin, Santillana, Mauricio and Kiss, István Zoltán (2026) Unveiling individual and collective temporal patterns in the tanker shipping network. Nature Communications. ISSN 2041-1723 (In Press)

Abstract

The global oil tanker shipping network emerges from individual ship and fleet decisions driven by economic, environmental, and operational efficiency factors. However, most existing analyses of shipping networks rely on static, time aggregated representations, which overlook critical temporal patterns that connect individual vessel routing strategies with both operational efficiency and system-wide cargo flows. To address this gap, we introduce a dual-scale framework complementing sequential motif analysis—which captures recurring patterns in ships’ regional visit sequences—with Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to extract temporal dynamics spanning individual trajectories to global flow patterns. Using movement data from oil tankers across four vessel classes, we demonstrate that vessels exhibiting diverse regional exploration patterns spend up to 50% more time carrying rather than seeking cargo, indicating greater economic and environmental efficiency. At the system level, DMD analysis of regional cargo flows reveals distinct seasonal cycles with amplitudes averaging 16% between peak and trough periods. Major importing regions (Europe, East Asia) show synchronous annual demand cycles, while export regions (Middle East, South America) exhibit anti-synchronous patterns. These multi-scale temporal dependencies, undetectable through conventional static analysis, reveal actionable performance differentials that enable data-driven routing strategies to optimize both economic efficiency and environmental sustainability.

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