Change My View: How Rhetorical Strategy Modulates Rational Belief Change
Freeborn, David Peter Wallis (2026) Change My View: How Rhetorical Strategy Modulates Rational Belief Change. Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association. (In Press)
Abstract
Bayesian convergence theorems suggest that agents who share evidence should eventually agree, yet multi-belief Bayesian models show how shared evidence can rationally polarise agents whose higher-order priors diverge. I argue that effective persuasion under such conditions requires higher-order alignment: convergence on the background assumptions through which evidence is weighted. A formal model links mediating-node alignment to reduced posterior disagreement, and evidence from 3,051 r/ChangeMyView debates supports the predicted pattern: concession and empathy positively predict belief revision, while direct challenge and deflection negatively predict it. The result reframes concession as an epistemic strategy.
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