Rational Factionalization for Agents with Probabilistically Related Beliefs

Freeborn, David Peter Wallis (2024) Rational Factionalization for Agents with Probabilistically Related Beliefs. Synthese. ISSN 1573-0964

Abstract

General epistemic polarization arises when the beliefs of a population grow further apart, in particular when all agents update on the same evidence. Epistemic factionalization arises when the beliefs grow further apart, but different beliefs also become correlated across the population. I present a model of how factionalization can emerge in a population of ideally rational agents. This kind of factionalization is driven by probabilistic relations between beliefs, with background beliefs shaping how the agents' beliefs evolve in the light of new evidence. Moreover, I show that in such a model, the only possible outcomes from updating on identical evidence are general convergence or factionalization. Beliefs cannot spread out in all directions: if the beliefs overall polarize, then it must result in factionalization.

Text Rational_Factionalization_Probabilistically_Related_Beliefs.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 January 2025. Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB) | Request a copy

Item Type:	Article
Disciplines:	Humanities > Philosophy
Depositing User:	David Freeborn
Date Deposited:	30 Jan 2024 10:39
Last Modified:	14 May 2024 16:36
URI:	https://nul.repository.guildhe.ac.uk/id/eprint/1589

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